Another rough day in the markets with 12 trades placed and net loss of 2.4 points. It was one of those days were that one goal we needed to tip us into profit didn't come.
Rather spectacularly, I am almost half way my target number of trades of 200 already - will reflect on this later in the post.
Current position for Round 2 is:
No of trades placed: 108
+11.6 points
Reflections on Variance, Strike-Rate and the emergence of high-volume trading:
As it was a relatively quiet evening of football, I took time to look at my results data since the launch of the experiment on the first of October, particularly the first half.
First half data analysis so far (1st October - 12st October):
156 trades placed
My strike rate is 35.4% (almost exactly in alignment with the 35.5% strike rate expected at my point of entry)
The profitability (£91 NET) is coming from the occasional big wins which push up my average winning amount. My average win for round 2 is £7.5 but we did have a really big win. take that out and the average win is still around £5.9 which still gives a tiny edge of 1.67% over the market
I am finding it harder to wait around for second half games without no goal in the second half at my point of entry. Still profitable but cant get the volume I get in the first half as loads of games have second half goals relatively early.
Stick to busy trading days to navigate variance?
One theory is given my first half trading is quite high volume, should I then stick to busier days to smoothen that out? Last Saturday was 51 trades for example. Today was 12, which means I could easily not meet those averages on a quiet day.
At a strike rate of around 35%, I lose 65 out of 100 trades on average so some days will be painful for sure, and the losing runs will be served in plenty. So if the theory is right, then I can see myself taking most Mondays and Thursdays off trading (at least).
One to keep an eye on - tomorrow 22/10 is a busy Tuesday so we shall put the theory to test!
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