What comes to mine when you think of Jordan? The archaeological and historical city of Petra perhaps?
Today wasn't about me jetting off to Petra, but more about spotting an opportunity in late stages of a cup match in Jordan. Now this all sounds like a bad idea as many traders have biases towards the lesser known football leagues.
Now take a closer look at what I found on Soccerway, which is an amazing and completely free football research tool.
Al wehdat away and Al jazeera at home - a decent number of goals!
Now just a word of warning when using Soccerway for research. I had to further filter this down based on the Shield cup as below
I noticed Al Wehdat had scored in all but one game, playing away in this competition
With the IP stats looking pretty strong around the 83rd minute and still nil nil, I decided to go in with a tiny liability of 0.1 PT on the over 1.5 goals. The over 0.5 goals was also of interest and the odds were around 3.3. I was abit greedy and decided to wait till the Over 0.5 goal market went to odds of 4.
Around 60 seconds later, BOOM ! Al Wehdat take the lead.
I managed to grab the Betfair graph as below to show you how the profit was made. I got on at back odds of 25 and the markets tanked after the goal to lay odds of around 5..
The good thing with this approach is sometimes, another goal goes in before the markets settle properly and those big wins make a big difference to our overall profitability as far as I can see so far.
I then took my profit of £3.40 quid as below. Now some of you may read this and wonder whether this is even worth mentioning. Can't even pay for half a pint of beer in most UK pubs these days I hear you say!
The thing to remember here is the Return on Investment (ROI). This was a whopping 240% ROI! Of course, these trades won't come in all the time. The trick is to win more than I lose, at least that's the theory!
Why go on the over 1.5 goal market so late in the game?
Now, this is where it gets interesting. If I compare this profit with the odds on the 0.5 goal markets which had barely touched 3.4 odds, the most I would have made with the same stake of £1 at exactly the same time of entry would have been around £2.5 in profit
So I managed to extract an extra 36% more in profit from the market. In a game of fine margins, this is quite an important revelation
The downside is, similar to the Lazio v Empoli game yesterday, I hesitated to enter this Jordanian trade with a slightly highly liability. I would have immediately banked £3.40 on trade, plus another £2.4 on the 0.5 goal trade, leaving me with 0.5PTS profit in less than 10 minutes of trading, including research.
Lessons to date:
I am officially convinced that my main focus is going to be on finding late goals with a maximum liability of 0.5 Points. I will need to overcome the fear to commit on both markets, once I am happy to enter a trade. I am still using a tiny portion of my overall bank which is great. The mindset journey never ends!
Losing trade: I did try and find a late goal on another game (Ternana v Nuovo) given the 6 minutes extra time but that finished 0-0. Tiny liability as per screenshot below
Overall, really happy with my 2 trades for today. A bit of work to do on the mindset when committing to a trade, but I am sure that will come more naturally as the confidence grows, assuming of course I see consistent results over time!!
Current status as at 7th October:
30 games traded
3.5 Points NET profit (Ignore the 10P stakes on the P&L - part of my automation testing which I might ditch at the end of October as it just messes up my reporting)
Cumulative P&L from 1st October
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