Okay so time to do a bit of reflection
Because of the circa 486 markets I traded as part of my automation testing, it has proven really hard to find a tidy way of reporting just my manual trades, shy of logging each one separately. I know this should be the right thing to do but having used automated software for the last 3 years or so (which does all the logging automatically), I am a bit spoilt
I will figure out the record keeping side and I have drastically cut down my automated strategies so will be really easy to keep track from today
So all that side, we are 17 days into this journey and below is the current position - we are in profit! Which is ultimately what this is about - on ifs, no what ifs and no buts!
HEADLINE: £24 NET profit after 17 days and circa 150 manual trades placed (ignore the greyhounds, not part of the project)
So this gives us a 2.4% increase in our original 1K bank which is not bad at all. So I am happy to move to phase 2 of the experiment which is outlined below:
NEW stake size (maximum liability): £6 - this will be regarded as 1 point for Phase 2
NEXT review - 200 trades: will no longer count a trade as 1 x match traded as this has proven to be difficult to keep track of. Further more, if I go on a over 1.5 goals market and then on the 0.5 goals market of the same game, I should count those as 2 trades and assess each strategy / market separately based on its performance
Phase 2 start date: 18th October 2024
Anticipated end of phase 2: Early November and certainly before the next international break which starts 16th November 2024
What MIGHT happen if all goes to plan?
Phase 1: £5 total liability (gives us 4.8 points if I had correctly from the start)
Phase 2 (assuming profit in Phase 1): Move up to £6 total liability - we are here now
Phase 3: Move to £7
Phase 4: Move to £8 and so on... till the end of the experiment after phase 6
If still profitable at this stage, then move to 1% of bank as stake
Rough estimate of phase completion (Each phase = 200 trades, approx.) | Phase | Starting bank | Point size | Anticipated / average profit in points (happy path) | NET | NEW BANK (£) |
| 2 | 1024 | 6 | 5 | 30 | 1054 |
| 3 | 1054 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 1089 |
| 4 | 1089 | 8 | 5 | 40 | 1129 |
| 5 | 1129 | 9 | 5 | 45 | 1174 |
Dec-24 | 6 | 1174 | 10 | 5 | 50 | 1224 |
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| EXPERIMENT ENDS - MOVE to 1% OF BANK |
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Jan-25 | 7 | 1200 | 12 | 5 | 60 | 1260 |
| 8 |
| 12.6 | 5 | 63 | 1323 |
| 9 |
| 13.23 | 5 | 66.15 | 1389.15 |
| 10 |
| 13.8915 | 5 | 69.4575 | 1458.6075 |
| 11 |
| 14.586075 | 5 | 72.93038 | 1531.537875 |
| 12 |
| 15.31537875 | 5 | 76.57689 | 1608.114769 |
| 13 |
| 16.08114769 | 5 | 80.40574 | 1688.520507 |
| 14 |
| 16.88520507 | 5 | 84.42603 | 1772.946533 |
| 15 |
| 17.72946533 | 5 | 88.64733 | |
May-25 | 16 |
| 18.61593859 | 5 | 93.07969 | 1954.673552 |
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