Hey all
I took a wee break from blogging as the experiment came to an end - just to complete all my data analysis from the experiment (which is now complete). I also setup a basic results spreadsheet going forward, which you can link to here. I will aim to update the spreadsheet at least once every couple of days. It is essentially a download of the befair P&L - will make a fancier spreadsheet when I get some time in the future.
Note: The spreadsheet covers only the last orders trading strategy, which was essentially born out of the findings from the experiment.
Trading and Mindset Updates:
It's been a decent few days from Monday, especially so given I am particularly wary of cup football such as Champions League, Europa etc.. However, the last orders strategy has held steady so far in it's first few days of launch, with a few good wins, and many losses of course.
Current strike rate of 42% over 291 trades: So looking at the data, the strategy is sitting around 42% strike rate over around 291 trades from 1st October to 12th Dec (current day). I will need to get to at least 500 trades, ideally 1000 before real judgements can be made on the long term potential.
Discipline and mindset: Protect your profit and bank at all times
Getting to 1000 trades will likely take a while as the approach is very different to the experiment whereby I was trading high volumes, trying different things and angles just to learn as much as possible. The strategy born out of the data from the experiment is pretty strict on criteria and on quiet days, I may only get a handful of opportunities that meet my filters (it gets busier at the weekends as expected).
Stop when up: Moreso, I am really strict now on stopping once I am profitable for day. I lived and breathed all the demons that come on days during the experiment when I continued to trade after being up, and ended up with a huge loss driven by frustration. Even on losing days, I know when I have had enough of the markets, and I shutdown for the day. Needless to say, I ONLY level stake. No staking or progression plans for me - been there, done that, BLOWN the banks.
Not going back there and for those reading this, I strongly you encourage you to practise this approach. Some argue that if a strategy is profitable, then you may as well smash all the qualifiers on a busy Saturday. There are 2 main issues I found with this approach:
TIME: Life as a trader is about making money, shutting down the laptop and getting on with life. Not spending hours away from family.
MENTAL FATIGUE: It doesn't matter how much focus you have. Trading for hours a day, everyday, will take its toll on your mental health
First half trading eliminated:
I gave first half trading another bash in round 7, just to see if the last orders principles would work well and give me the manageable variance I have seen in the second half. WRONG! I lost 6 in a row and packed it in. So the last orders strategy is exclusively second half (I said this a few times in previous posts and kept going against my word so serves me right!)
Well done to those who manage the first half trading well, not for me.
Enough of the rant and lecture! I did think it was important to frame what happens now that the experiment is complete.
I will leave you with a few screenshots from some of the key trades in Round 7. My future posts will focus more on the trades themselves, promise!
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